This is an AI translated post.
PALM OIL Trend (24.05.20-24.05.24)
- Writing language: Korean
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Base country: All countries
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- Economy
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Summarized by durumis AI
- Palm oil production and export supply have recovered since April, reversing the year-on-year decline, with demand increasing in major consuming countries, especially India and China.
- Global palm oil stocks declined to 13.4 million tonnes as of the end of March 2024, due to declining production and price increases, leading consumers to switch to other oils.
- As palm oil prices become competitive against soya oil and sun oil, the decline in global sun oil exports in the next 3-4 months is expected to contribute to increased palm oil purchases and price support.
▶ Palm oil production and export supply volumes started to recover in April, reversing the year-on-year declines recorded in the previous two quarters.
▶ Export supplies of palm oil are now increasing, which is something consumers in India, China, and other countries have been waiting for.
▶ The forecast for declining sun oil global exports over the next 3-4 months will contribute to an increase in palm oil purchases and support prices.
1. Palm Oil Production Recovery: Palm oil production and export supply volumes started to recover in April. This is a positive sign, reversing the year-on-year decline trend over the previous two quarters.
2. Inventory Reduction: As of the end of March 2024, global palm oil inventories have declined significantly to 13.4 million tons. This is due to lower-than-expected production in major producing countries, such as Indonesia, Thailand, Guatemala, and Colombia. Additionally, rising palm oil prices have led consumers to switch to other oils, resulting in a decrease in global palm oil exports.
3. Improved Price Competitiveness: Recently, palm oil prices have become more competitive compared to Argentine soya oil and Black Sea sun oil, leading to an increase in export supplies. This is positive news for major consuming countries like India and China.
4. Suppressed Demand: Due to low import volumes in major consuming countries, palm oil inventories have been significantly reduced in part. This suggests that there is suppressed demand for palm oil in the future.
5. Future Outlook: A decrease in global sun oil exports over the next 3-4 months is expected to contribute to an increase in palm oil purchases and price support. In particular, global palm oil exports are expected to recover to 25.9 million tons from April to September 2024, largely thanks to Indonesia.
This situation necessitates in-depth analysis of the palm oil market, and market participants should monitor these changes and make strategic decisions.
