This is an AI translated post.
Recent Trends and Forecasts of the Vegetable Oil Market
- Writing language: Korean
- •
-
Base country: All countries
- •
- Others
0000-00-00 00:00:00
Select Language
Summarized by durumis AI
- Global production of the eight major vegetable oils is expected to increase by 2.1 million tonnes from April to September 2024. This represents a 5.3 million tonne increase year-on-year, but it is a significant slowdown from the 9.4 million tonne increase in the previous season.
- Global vegetable oil inventories are expected to decline by 31.8 million tonnes by September 2024, representing a 0.7 million tonne decline year-on-year.
- Increasing palm oil production is gradually replenishing export supplies, and while Argentina’s soya oil exports are increasing, Brazil and US exports are expected to be limited by domestic demand.
▶ 8 major oil production is estimated to increase by only 2.1 million tons from April to September 2024, compared to the increase of 3.2 million tons from October 2023 to March 2024.
▶ Global market reliance on soya oil is likely to rise for the rest of this season.
▶ Global vegetable oil stocks are expected to decline to 31.8 million tons by September 2024 (down 0.7 million tons year-on-year), contrasting with the increases recorded over the past two years.
The vegetable oil market has experienced considerable volatility in recent years. A detailed look at market trends and projections reveals several key takeaways.
Production and Slowing Growth:
2Production of the eight major vegetable oils in the 2023/24 season is projected to reach 219.1 million tons.This represents a year-on-year increase of 5.3 million tons. However, this growth rate is significantly slower than the 9.4 million tons increase seen in the previous season. Palm oil production, in particular, has witnessed only a modest increase, while sun oil and rapeseed oil production has also lost momentum. Despite these declines, soya oil production remains robust, somewhat offsetting the decrease in other oils. This reflects the differences in production volumes across various vegetable oils and the impact of increased demand for specific oils.
Projected Production Increases:
Over the period fromApril to September 2024, global production of the eight major vegetable oils is projected to rise by 2.1 million tons.This compares to an increase of 3.2 million tons over the previous six months.Due to ample supplies of soybeans, dependence on soya oil is expected to increase.This is one of the key changes in the vegetable oil market, highlighting the impact of shifts in supply and demand for specific oils on the overall market.
Price Trends and Rising Consumption:
From October 2023 to May 2024, major vegetable oil prices faced pressure from a slowdown in import demand for sun oil and increasing export supply. This resulted in a year-on-year decline in vegetable oil prices, accompanied by an increase in consumption in both the food and energy sectors. Notably, global consumption of the eight major vegetable oils rose by 5.0 million tons year-on-year from October 2023 to March 2024. This reflects strong consumer demand for vegetable oils and growth in related industries.
Price Trends and Rising Consumption:
From October 2023 to May 2024, major vegetable oil prices faced pressure from a slowdown in import demand for sun oil and increasing export supply.
This resulted in a year-on-year decline in vegetable oil prices, accompanied by an increase in consumption in both the food and energy sectors.
Global consumption of the eight oils rose by 5.0 million tons year-on-year from October 2023 to March 2024.
Declining Stock Levels:
The stock increase, which stood at 2.0 million tons at the beginning of October 2023, had dwindled to 0.6 million tons by the end of March 2024.
Palm oil stock levels have decreased significantly compared to the previous year.
Production and Consumption Changes of 8 Major Oils
Slowing Consumption Growth:
Overproduction of biofuel in the United States is expected to lead to a slowdown in consumption growth from April to September 2024.
Global consumption growth is projected to slow to 3.3 million tons during this period. However, the overall season is expected to see an increase of 8.5 million tons.
Declining Trade Volumes:
Global export volumes declined by 2.5 million tons from October 2023 to March 2024, due to tight palm oil supply and high stock levels in importing countries like India.
The decrease in palm oil exports was not offset by a surge in sun oil exports.
Future Outlook:
An increase in imports is anticipated from April to September 2024, driven by stock depletion in India and other importing nations.
However, limited supplies of sun oil and rapeseed oil pose a challenge.
Growing palm oil production is gradually replenishing export supplies, while Argentina's soya oil exports are increasing, but Brazilian and US exports are constrained by domestic demand.
Final Stock Level Projections:
Global vegetable oil stocks are projected to decline to 31.8 million tons by September 2024, representing a decrease of 0.7 million tons year-on-year.
This decline will be a combination of lower palm oil stocks and a decrease in sun oil stocks.
Global Vegetable Oil Balance
